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It is time to focus on the latest Premier League relegation, top 4 and Europa League scenarios and remind ourselves of the Premier League tiebreaker rules as the business end of the season is here.
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Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Europa League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's UEFA Champions League regardless of their league finishing position. A maximum of five Premier League teams are eligible for UEFA Champions League qualification. The English Premier League was established in 1992. Arsenal and Chelsea securing the available slots. The 2019 Champions League and Europa League finals may nevertheless mark the highest.
UEFA have confirmed that up to eight Premier League teams could play in the Champions League and Europa League next season. There will be no extra slot for an English club next season. Who qualified for the Europa League? Leicester go direct to the Europa League group stage along with the FA Cup winners. As Man City won the Carabao Cup and do not need the Europa League place associated with it, that transfers to the Premier League, so Tottenham will enter the competition in the second qualifying round.
Strap in, folks, and get your calculators out and keep this page open as it will come in very handy in the final week of the season with things about to get wild.
Below we take a look at the latest scenarios for relegation, Europa League and the top 4, as there are many permutations which could play out during the final 90 minutes of the season.
Plenty could still be decided on the final day of the season.
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Here’s a look at what needs to happen for relegation, Europa League and top four spots to be confirmed, while a look at the tiebreaker rules already has us imagining the madness of Watford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa all being tied on points, goal difference and goals scored when the final whistle arrives.
PREMIER LEAGUE TOP 4 SCENARIOS
Chelsea
- Chelsea would clinch top-4 with:
- Win/draw v. Wolves
OR
- Loss v. Wolves AND Manchester United win at Leicester
Manchester United
- Manchester United would clinch top-4 with:
- Win/draw at Leicester
OR
- Chelsea loss v. Wolves*
*Scenario assumes MU maintain GD advantage over Chelsea (MU: +28 / CHE: +13)
Leicester City
- Leicester would clinch top-4 with:
- Win v. Manchester United
OR
- Draw v. Manchester United AND Chelsea loss v. Wolves
EUROPA LEAGUE SCENARIOS
Wolves
- Wolves would clinch top-6 finish if:
- They better or equal Tottenham’s result
Tottenham Hotspur
- Tottenham would clinch top-6 finish if:
- They better Wolves’ results
And 7th would qualify for Europa League if Chelsea win the FA Cup.
TIEBREAKER RULES
In terms of tiebreakers, here is the order and format in which league position will be sorted by if teams finish level on points:
- Goal difference
- Goals scored
- Points won in head-to-head meetings
- Away goals in head-to-head meetings
If the teams still can’t be separated after the above tiebreakers, a playoff will be arranged (at a neutral ground with the format, timing and venue determined by the Premier League Board).
RELEGATION SCENARIOS
Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Home | Away | PTS |
West Ham United | 37 | 10 | 8 | 19 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 6-3-9 | 4-5-10 | 38 |
Aston Villa | 37 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 40 | 66 | -26 | 7-3-9 | 2-4-12 | 34 |
Watford | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 34 | 61 | -27 | 6-6-7 | 2-4-12 | 34 |
Bournemouth | 37 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 5-6-8 | 3-1-14 | 31 |
Norwich City | 37 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 70 | -44 | 4-3-12 | 1-3-14 | 21 |
Relegation – How teams can stay up
- Aston Villa: Better Watford’s result OR draw and Watford draw
- Watford: Better Aston Villa’s result
- Bournemouth: Win and both Aston Villa and Watford lose
Aston Villa
last match: 11 am ET Sunday at West Ham
Villa needs a little bit more than a win or hoping Watford falls at Arsenal.
How could Villa go down with a win? If Watford beats Arsenal by at least two more goals than Villa defeats West Ham, it will climb over the Villans.
Similarly, if Bournemouth draws or loses, and both Villa and Watford lose, Villa could go down if it loses to West Ham by at least two more goals than Watford loses to Arsenal.
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If both Villa and Watford draw, Villa stays up.
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If Villa draws and Watford loses, Villa stays up regardless of what Bournemouth does at Everton.
Watford
last match: 11 am ET Sunday at Arsenal
A win over the Gunners would be enough if Villa loses.
A draw would be enough if West Ham beats Aston Villa.
Watford could even stay up with a loss if Bournemouth draws or loses and Villa loses to West Ham by two more goals than the Hornets loses to Arsenal.
Bournemouth
last match: 11 am ET Sunday at Everton
The Cherries need to win at Everton. Anything less and they’re down.
If Eddie Howe’s men take down the Toffees, they also need Watford and Villa to lose.
Find out about the format and history of UEFA's second tier club competition
The UEFA Europa League is UEFA's second tier European club competition and was previously known as the UEFA Cup.
The competition changed its name in 2009/10 and involves qualifying and a play-off taking place before a group stage, which begins in September.
There are 12 groups of four teams, with each team playing everyone else in that group on a home and away basis. The top two in each group, plus the eight third-placed teams who depart from the UEFA Champions League group stage, progress to the round of 32.
As in the Champions League, all of the knockout stages apart from the final are played over two legs.
Since the competition changed its name, there have been two Premier League winners, with Chelsea winning the trophy twice, in 2012/13 and 2018/19, and Manchester United beating Ajax 2-0 in the 2016/17 final.
In the first Europa League tournament in 2009/10, Fulham had a memorable run to the final - including a 5-4 comeback aggregate win over Juventus in the round of 16, but they could not get their hands on the trophy as they lost 2-1 to Atletico Madrid after extra time.
Reward for winning the Europa League is a place in the Champions League group stages the next season.
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There are several ways English sides can qualify for the Europa League. A fifth-placed finish in the Premier League guarantees a place in the group stages, as does victory in the FA Cup. Winning the League Cup guarantees a Europa League third-qualifying round spot.
If the winners of the FA Cup and League Cup finish in the top four then their places are taken by the next highest placed finishers in the Premier League table who have not already qualified for Europe.
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In 2019/20, the Premier League representatives in the Europa League are fifth-placed Arsenal and sixth-placed Manchester United, who both advanced straight into the group stage.
Wolverhampton Wanderers, who ended in seventh position in 2018/19, and started in the second qualifying round. They progressed against Crusaders, Pyunik and Torino to reach the group stage.
For more on the UEFA Europa League, click here.